Predicting macroalgal introductions at global and regional scales : trends and methods / Néstor M. Robinson.

By: Robinson, Néstor [author.].
Material type: materialTypeLabelBookPublisher: 2020Description: ix, 229 pages : color illustrations, maps ; 30 cm.Subject(s): MACROALGAE | MARINE ALGAE | MARINE ECOLOGY | INTRODUCTIONS | BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS | UNDARIA PINNATIFIDA | AQUATIC WEEDS | GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION | POPULATION DISTRIBUTION | THESES | NEW ZEALANDHoldings: GRETA POINT: 574:504.3 ROB Online resources: e-Thesis University of Auckland
Contents:
GENERAL INTRODUCTION -- 1.1 Biological invasions -- 1.2 Marine macroalgae as a study case in biogeography and invasion -- Ecology -- 1.3 Marine macroalgal introductions at a national scale -- 1.4 The contribution of this study -- 1.5 Data availability -- 1.6 The use of SDMs to predict potential distributions -- 1.7 The use of STMs to investigate trait-environment relationships -- 1.8 Study aims and thesis outline -- 2 CURRENT GLOBAL PATTERNS OF MARINE MACROALGAL INTRODUCTIONS -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Methods -- 2.2.1 Data on introduced macroalgal species -- 2.2.2 Temporal trend of macroalgal introductions -- 2.2.3 Taxonomic analysis -- 2.2.4 Geographical data of introductions -- 2.2.5 Visualizing global patterns of macroalgal introductions -- 2.3 Results -- 2.3.1 Summary of global introductions -- 2.3.2 Temporal trend -- 2.3.3 Taxonomic analysis -- 2.3.4 Global patterns of macroalgal introductions -- 2.3.5 Global patterns of introduction vectors -- 2.4 Discussion and conclusion -- 3 A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF INCORPORATION OF UNCERTAINTY IN MARINE-BASED SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS (SDMS) WITH RECOMMENDATIONS FOR BEST PRACTICE -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Methods -- 3.2.1 Literature search -- 3.2.2 Data analysis -- 3.2.3 Framework to guide future applications -- 3.3 Results -- 3.3.1 Synthesised findings -- 3.4 Discussion -- 3.4.1 Summary of main findings -- 3.5 Conclusions -- 4 PREDICTING THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE INVASIVE KELP Undaria pinnatifida IN NEW ZEALAND -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Species background Undaria pinnatifida -- 4.2.1 Invasion history -- 4.3 Methods -- 4.3.1 Step 2 – data collection -- 4.3.2 Step 3 – data manipulation -- 4.3.3 Step 4 – model implementation -- 4.3.4 Step 5 – model calibration -- 4.3.5 Step 6 – model validation -- 4.4 Results -- 4.4.1 Sampling intensity analysis -- 4.4.2 Projected present–day niches -- 4.4.3 Predicted niche shift: gain, loss and stable coast -- 4.5 Discussion and conclusion -- 5 PREDICTING RESPONSES OF INTRODUCED MACROALGAL SPECIES TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS: AN STMS APPROACH -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Methods -- 5.2.1 Step 2 - Data collection -- 5.2.2 Step 3 – Data manipulation -- 5.2.3 Step 4 – Model implementation -- 5.2.4 Step 5 – Model calibration -- 5.2.5 Step 6 – Model outputs -- 5.2.6 Temporal trend of macroalgal introductions in New Zealand -- 5.3 Results -- 5.3.1 Summary of macroalgal introduction patterns in New Zealand -- 5.3.2 Analysis of trait-environment relationships -- 5.4 Discussion and conclusion -- 6 GENERAL DISCUSSION -- 6.1 Synopsis -- 6.2 Recommendations to improve predictions of macroalgal introductions -- 6.3 Future directions to improve predictions of macroalgal introductions -- 6.4 Concluding statement -- 7 APPENDICES -- 7.1 Appendix A -- 7.2 Appendix B -- 7.3 Appendix C -- 7.4 Appendix D -- LIST OF REFERENCES.
Dissertation note: Thesis (PhD in Biological Sciences) -- University of Auckland, 2020 Abstract: Introductions of marine macroalgae are rapidly increasing in the marine environment, yet the complex mechanisms by which introduced macroalgae become established are not well understood. At global and regional scales, it is not known whether the observed increasing numbers of macroalgal introductions are a consequence of climate change (increasing sea surface temperatures -SST), increasing sampling effort, or the high volumes of maritime traffic. To inform a detailed investigation of the potential donor and recipient regions of macroalgal introductions globally, a quantitative analysis of macroalgal introduction events was performed (Chapter 2). The global patterns of macroalgal introductions visualised here show that Turkey, United States, Brazil, Chile, and New Zealand seem to be the major recipients of macroalgal introductions. To provide the background necessary for identifying predictive tools that can inform monitoring and management of macroalgal introductions, a systematic review of probabilistic methods that are being used in marine ecology for predicting species distributions was conducted (Chapter 3). Species Distribution Models (SDMs) were then applied to examine the potential range expansion of the invasive kelp Undaria pinnatifida, and how such an approach may be used to inform invasion management and monitoring (Chapter 4). Based on SST increases the models predicted that the northern distribution boundary for Undaria might retreat southward up to 6.42 , but remain stable in southern New Zealand (i.e., Otago to the Snares Islands). To better understand the mechanisms by which introduced species become established, trait-environment relationships were investigated by applying Species Trait Models (STMs). Analysis of biological and ecological traits for all the macroalgal species (n=46) introduced to New Zealand indicated that the traits ‘form’, ‘family’, and ‘attachment’ were the most relevant at explaining species responses to environmental conditions (Chapter 5). Similarly, SST range, and climate change (i.e., increase in SST), as well as dissolved oxygen, explained most of the variation in species composition within the macroalgal dataset. Results presented in this study show that the variation in broad geographic distribution patterns of introduced and invasive macroalgal species are largely determined by increasing water temperature regimes. Overall, this has implications for monitoring and management of macroalgal introductions, most importantly for modelling macroalgal distributions and their potential spread in marine ecosystems.
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BOOK BOOK WELLINGTON
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574:504.3 ROB 1 Available B021352

"A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Biological Sciences, The University of Auckland, 2020."

Supervisor, Prof. Wendy Nelson. Advisors: Dr. Judy Sutherland, Dr. Carolyn Lundquist, and Prof. Mark Costello.

Thesis (PhD in Biological Sciences) -- University of Auckland, 2020

Includes bibliographical references.

GENERAL INTRODUCTION -- 1.1 Biological invasions -- 1.2 Marine macroalgae as a study case in biogeography and invasion -- Ecology -- 1.3 Marine macroalgal introductions at a national scale -- 1.4 The contribution of this study -- 1.5 Data availability -- 1.6 The use of SDMs to predict potential distributions -- 1.7 The use of STMs to investigate trait-environment relationships -- 1.8 Study aims and thesis outline -- 2 CURRENT GLOBAL PATTERNS OF MARINE MACROALGAL INTRODUCTIONS -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Methods -- 2.2.1 Data on introduced macroalgal species -- 2.2.2 Temporal trend of macroalgal introductions -- 2.2.3 Taxonomic analysis -- 2.2.4 Geographical data of introductions -- 2.2.5 Visualizing global patterns of macroalgal introductions -- 2.3 Results -- 2.3.1 Summary of global introductions -- 2.3.2 Temporal trend -- 2.3.3 Taxonomic analysis -- 2.3.4 Global patterns of macroalgal introductions -- 2.3.5 Global patterns of introduction vectors -- 2.4 Discussion and conclusion -- 3 A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF INCORPORATION OF UNCERTAINTY IN MARINE-BASED SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS (SDMS) WITH RECOMMENDATIONS FOR BEST PRACTICE -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Methods -- 3.2.1 Literature search -- 3.2.2 Data analysis -- 3.2.3 Framework to guide future applications -- 3.3 Results -- 3.3.1 Synthesised findings -- 3.4 Discussion -- 3.4.1 Summary of main findings -- 3.5 Conclusions -- 4 PREDICTING THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE INVASIVE KELP Undaria pinnatifida IN NEW ZEALAND -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Species background Undaria pinnatifida -- 4.2.1 Invasion history -- 4.3 Methods -- 4.3.1 Step 2 – data collection -- 4.3.2 Step 3 – data manipulation -- 4.3.3 Step 4 – model implementation -- 4.3.4 Step 5 – model calibration -- 4.3.5 Step 6 – model validation -- 4.4 Results -- 4.4.1 Sampling intensity analysis -- 4.4.2 Projected present–day niches -- 4.4.3 Predicted niche shift: gain, loss and stable coast -- 4.5 Discussion and conclusion -- 5 PREDICTING RESPONSES OF INTRODUCED MACROALGAL SPECIES TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS: AN STMS APPROACH -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Methods -- 5.2.1 Step 2 - Data collection -- 5.2.2 Step 3 – Data manipulation -- 5.2.3 Step 4 – Model implementation -- 5.2.4 Step 5 – Model calibration -- 5.2.5 Step 6 – Model outputs -- 5.2.6 Temporal trend of macroalgal introductions in New Zealand -- 5.3 Results -- 5.3.1 Summary of macroalgal introduction patterns in New Zealand -- 5.3.2 Analysis of trait-environment relationships -- 5.4 Discussion and conclusion -- 6 GENERAL DISCUSSION -- 6.1 Synopsis -- 6.2 Recommendations to improve predictions of macroalgal introductions -- 6.3 Future directions to improve predictions of macroalgal introductions -- 6.4 Concluding statement -- 7 APPENDICES -- 7.1 Appendix A -- 7.2 Appendix B -- 7.3 Appendix C -- 7.4 Appendix D -- LIST OF REFERENCES.

Introductions of marine macroalgae are rapidly increasing in the marine environment, yet the complex mechanisms by which introduced macroalgae become established are not well understood. At global and regional scales, it is not known whether the observed increasing numbers of macroalgal introductions are a consequence of climate change (increasing sea surface temperatures -SST), increasing sampling effort, or the high volumes of maritime traffic. To inform a detailed investigation of the potential donor and recipient regions of macroalgal introductions globally, a quantitative analysis of macroalgal introduction events was performed (Chapter 2). The global patterns of macroalgal introductions visualised here show that Turkey, United States, Brazil, Chile, and New Zealand seem to be the major recipients of macroalgal introductions. To provide the background necessary for identifying predictive tools that can inform monitoring and management of macroalgal introductions, a systematic review of probabilistic methods that are being used in marine ecology for predicting species distributions was conducted (Chapter 3). Species Distribution Models (SDMs) were then applied to examine the potential range expansion of the invasive kelp Undaria pinnatifida, and how such an approach may be used to inform invasion management and monitoring (Chapter 4). Based on SST increases the models predicted that the northern distribution boundary for Undaria might retreat southward up to 6.42 , but remain stable in southern New Zealand (i.e., Otago to the Snares Islands). To better understand the mechanisms by which introduced species become established, trait-environment relationships were investigated by applying Species Trait Models (STMs). Analysis of biological and ecological traits for all the macroalgal species (n=46) introduced to New Zealand indicated that the traits ‘form’, ‘family’, and ‘attachment’ were the most relevant at explaining species responses to environmental conditions (Chapter 5). Similarly, SST range, and climate change (i.e., increase in SST), as well as dissolved oxygen, explained most of the variation in species composition within the macroalgal dataset. Results presented in this study show that the variation in broad geographic distribution patterns of introduced and invasive macroalgal species are largely determined by increasing water temperature regimes. Overall, this has implications for monitoring and management of macroalgal introductions, most importantly for modelling macroalgal distributions and their potential spread in marine ecosystems.

GRETA POINT: 574:504.3 ROB

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