Handbook of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting / edited by Qingyun Duan, Florian Pappenberger, Andy Wood, Hannah L. Cloke, John C. Schaake.

Contributor(s): Duan, Qingyun, 1960- [editor.] | Pappenberger, Florian [editor.] | Wood, Andy [editor.] | Cloke, Hannah L [editor.] | Schaake, John [editor.].
Material type: materialTypeLabelBookPublisher: Berlin : Springer, 2019.Description: xxxvi, 1528 pages (in 2 volumes) : illustrations (black and white, and colour) ; 24 cm.Content type: text | still image Media type: unmediated Carrier type: volumeISBN: 9783642399244; 364239924X; 9783642399268 (print and electronic bundle).Subject(s): HYDROMETEOROLOGY | PRECIPITATION FORECASTINGHoldings: GRETA POINT: 551.579 HAN Vol. 1-2
Contents:
VOLUME 1 -- Part I Introduction -- Hydrological predictability, scales, and uncertainty issues / Joshua K. Roundy, Qingyun Duan, and John C. Schaake -- Part II Overview of meteorological ensemble forecasting -- Overview of weather and climate systems / Huiling Yuan, Zoltan Toth, Malaquias Pena and Eugenia Kalnay -- Numerical weather prediction basics : models, numerical methods and data assimilation / Zhaoxia Pu and Eugenia Kalnay -- Ensemble methods for metereological predictions / Jun Du, Judith Berner, Roberta Buizza, Martin Charron, Peter Houtekamer, Dingchen Hou, Isidora Jankov, Mu Mu, Xuguang Wang, Mozheng Wei, and Huilin Youan -- Major operational ensemble prediction system (EPS) and the future of EPS / Roberto Buizza, Jun Du, Zoltan Toth, and Dingchen Hou -- Intraseasonal to interannual climate variability and prediction / Malaquias Pena, L. Gwen Chen, and Huang van den Dool -- Part III Post-processing of meteorological ensemble forecasting for hydrological application -- Hydrological challenges in meteorological post-processing / Frederik Wetterhall and Paul Smith -- Applications to post-processing of meteorological seasonal forecasting / Andrew Schepen, Q.J. Wang and David E. Robertson -- Multi-model combination and seamless prediction / Stephan Henri -- Part IV Hydrological models -- Hydrological cycles, models, and applications to forecasting / Sharad K. Jain and Vijay P. Singh -- Black-box hydrological models / Chong-Yu Xu, Lihua Xiong and Vijay P. Singh -- Conceptual hydrological models / Zhaofei Liu, Yamei Wang, Zongxue Xu, and Qingyun Duan -- Distributed hydrological models / Yangbo Chen -- Land surface hydrological models / Michael B. Ek -- Part V Model parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis -- Parameter estimation and predictive uncertainty quantification in hydrological modelling / Dmitri Kavetski -- Methods to estimate optimal parameters / Tiantian Yang, Kuolin Hsu, Qingyun Duan, Soroosh Sorooshian, and Chen Wang -- Uncertainty quantification of complex system models: Bayesian analysis / Jasper A. Vrugt and Elias C. Massoud -- Sensitivity analysis methods / Yanjun Gan and Qingyun Duan -- Part VI Observation and data assimilation -- Fundamentals of data assimilation and theoretical advances / Hamid Moradkhani, Grey S. Nearing, Peyman Abbaszadeh, and Sahani Pathiraja -- Soil moisture data assimilation / Gabrielle Jacinthe Maria De Lannoy, Patricia de Rosnay, and Rolf Helmut Reichle -- Assimilation of streamflow observations / Seong Jin Noh, Albrecht H. Weerts, Oldrich Rakovec, Haksu Lee, and Dong-Jun Seo.
VOLUME 2 -- Part VII Post-processing of hydrological ensemble forecasts -- Motivation and overview of hydrological ensemble post-processing / Thomas M. Hopson, Andy Wood, and Albrecht H. Weerts -- Short-range ensemble forecast post-processing / Marie-Amelie Boucher, Emmanuel Roulin, and Vincent Fortin -- Seasonal ensemble forecast post-processing / Andy Wood, A. Sankarasubramanian, and Pablo Mendoza -- Part VIII Verification of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts -- Attributes of forecast quality / A. Allen Bradley, Julie Demargne, and Kristi J. Franz -- Verification metrics for hydrological ensemble forecasts / Francois Anctil and Maria-Helena Ramos -- Verification of meteorological forecasts for hydrological applications / Eric Gilleland, Florian Pappenberger, Barbara Brown, Elizabeth Ebert, and David Richardson -- Verification of short-range hydrological forecasts / Luc Perreault, Jocelyn Gaudet, Louis Delorme, and Simon Chatelain -- Application of hydrological forecast verification information / Kevin Werner, Jan S. Verkade, and Thomas C. Pagano -- Part IX Communication and use of ensemble forecasts for decision making -- Overview of forecast communication and use of ensemble hydrometeorological forecasts / Jutta Thielen-del Pozo and Michael Bruen -- Present and future requirements for using and communicating hydrometeorological ensemble predicition systems for short-, medium-, and long-term applications / Geoff Pegram, Damien Raynaud, Eric Sprokkereef, Martin Ebel, Silke Rademacher, Jonas Olsson, Cristina Alionte-Eklund, Barbro Johansson, Goran Lindstrom, and Henrik Spangmyr -- Best practice in communicating uncertainties in flood management in the USA / Robert K. Hartman -- Saving lives: ensemble-based early warnings in developing nations / Feyera A. Hirpa, Kayode Fagbemi, Ernest Afiesimann, Hassan Shuaib and Peter Salamon -- Communication and using ensemble flood forecasts in flood incident management: lessons from social science / David Demeritt, Elisabeth M. Stephens, Laurence Creton-Cazanave, Celine Lutoff, Isabell Ruin and Sebastien Nobert -- Overview of communication strategies for uncertainty in hydrological forecasting in Australia / Narendra Kumar Tuteja, Senlin Zhou, Julien Lerat, Q.J. Wang, Daehyok Shin, and David E. Robertson -- Part X Ensemble forecast application and showcases -- Introduction to ensemble forecast applications and showcases / Massimiliano Zappa, S.J. van Andel, and Hannah L. Cloke -- Hydrological ensemble prediction systems around the globe / Florian Pappenberger, Thomas C. Pagano, J.D. Brown … -- Flash flood forecasting based n rainfall thresholds / Lorenzo Alfieri, Marc Berenguer, Valentin Knechtl, Katharina Liechti, Daniel Sempere-Torres, and Massimiliano Zappa -- Medium range flood forecasting example EFAS / Jutta Thielen-del Pozo, Peter Salamon, Peter Burek, Florian Pappenberger, C. Alionte Eklund, Erik Sprokkereef, M. Hazlinger, M. Padilla Garcia, and R. Garcia-Sanchez -- Seasonal drought forecasting on the example of the USA / Eric F. Wood, Xing Yuan, Joshua K. Roundy, Ming Pan and Lifeng Luo -- Ensemble streamflow forecasts for hydropower systems / Marie-Amelie Boucher and Maria-Helena Ramos -- Hydropower forecasting in Brazil / Carlos E.M. Tucci, Walter Colluschonn, Fernando Mainardi Fan, and Dirk Schwanenberg -- New York City's operations support tool: utilizing hydrologic forecasts for water supply management / James Porter, Gerald Day, John C. Schaake, and Lucien Wang -- Probabilistic shipping forecast / Dennis Meißner and Bastian Klein -- Probabilistic inundation forecasting / A. Mueller, C. Baugh, P. Bates, and Florian Pappenberger -- Challenges of decision making in the context of uncertain forecasts in France / Caroline Wittwer, C. de Saint-Aubin, and C. Ardilouze -- Hydrological ensemble prediction applied to China / Guangshen Wang, Zhijie Yin, Jianqing Yang, and Yuhong Yan -- Part XI Mathematical and statistical fundamentals for hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting -- Probability and statistical theory for hydrometeorology / Zengchao Hao, Vijay P. Singh, and Wei Gong -- Estimation of probability distributions for hydrometeorological applications / Grey S. Nearing -- Regression techniques used in hydrometeorology / Wei Gong -- Index.
Summary: Hydrometeorological prediction involves the forecasting of the state and variation of hydrometeorological elements -- including precipitation, temperature, humidity, soil moisture, river discharge, groundwater, etc.-- at different space and time scales. Such forecasts form an important scientific basis for informing public of natural hazards such as cyclones, heat waves, frosts, droughts and floods. Traditionally, and at most currently operational centers, hydrometeorological forecasts are deterministic, “single-valued” outlooks: i.e., the weather and hydrological models provide a single best guess of the magnitude and timing of the impending events. These forecasts suffer the obvious drawback of lacking uncertainty information that would help decision-makers assess the risks of forecast use. Recently, hydrometeorological ensemble forecast approaches have begun to be developed and used by operational hydrometeorological services. In contrast to deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts are a multiple forecasts of the same events. The ensemble forecasts are generated by perturbing uncertain factors such as model forcings, initial conditions, and/or model physics. Ensemble techniques are attractive because they not only offer an estimate of the most probable future state of the hydrometeorological system, but also quantify the predictive uncertainty of a catastrophic hydrometeorological event occurring. The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX), initiated in 2004, has signaled a new era of collaboration toward the development of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts. By bringing meteorologists, hydrologists and hydrometeorological forecast users together, HEPEX aims to improve operational hydrometeorological forecast approaches to a standard that can be used with confidence by emergencies and water resources managers. HEPEX advocates a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) framework that consists of several basic building blocks. These components include:(a) an approach (typically statistical) for addressing uncertainty in meteorological inputs and generating statistically consistent space/time meteorological inputs for hydrological applications; (b) a land data assimilation approach for leveraging observation to reduce uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions of the hydrological system; (c) approaches that address uncertainty in model parameters (also called ‘calibration’); (d) a hydrologic model or other approach for converting meteorological inputs into hydrological outputs; and finally (e) approaches for characterizing hydrological model output uncertainty. Also integral to HEPS is a verification system that can be used to evaluate the performance of all of its components. HEPS frameworks are being increasingly adopted by operational hydrometeorological agencies around the world to support risk management related to flash flooding, river and coastal flooding, drought, and water management. Real benefits of ensemble forecasts have been demonstrated in water emergence management decision making, optimization of reservoir operation, and other applications. -- publishers website.
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Item type Current location Call number Copy number Status Notes Date due Barcode
BOOK BOOK WELLINGTON
BOOKS
551.579 HAN Vol. 1 1 Issued Volume 1 07/11/2019 B020055
BOOK BOOK WELLINGTON
BOOKS
551.579 HAN Vol. 2 1 Issued Volume 2 07/11/2019 B020056

Volume 1 pages xxxvi, 1-780 ; Volume 2 pages xxxvi, 783-1528

Includes bibliographical references and index.

VOLUME 1 -- Part I Introduction -- Hydrological predictability, scales, and uncertainty issues / Joshua K. Roundy, Qingyun Duan, and John C. Schaake -- Part II Overview of meteorological ensemble forecasting -- Overview of weather and climate systems / Huiling Yuan, Zoltan Toth, Malaquias Pena and Eugenia Kalnay -- Numerical weather prediction basics : models, numerical methods and data assimilation / Zhaoxia Pu and Eugenia Kalnay -- Ensemble methods for metereological predictions / Jun Du, Judith Berner, Roberta Buizza, Martin Charron, Peter Houtekamer, Dingchen Hou, Isidora Jankov, Mu Mu, Xuguang Wang, Mozheng Wei, and Huilin Youan -- Major operational ensemble prediction system (EPS) and the future of EPS / Roberto Buizza, Jun Du, Zoltan Toth, and Dingchen Hou -- Intraseasonal to interannual climate variability and prediction / Malaquias Pena, L. Gwen Chen, and Huang van den Dool -- Part III Post-processing of meteorological ensemble forecasting for hydrological application -- Hydrological challenges in meteorological post-processing / Frederik Wetterhall and Paul Smith -- Applications to post-processing of meteorological seasonal forecasting / Andrew Schepen, Q.J. Wang and David E. Robertson -- Multi-model combination and seamless prediction / Stephan Henri -- Part IV Hydrological models -- Hydrological cycles, models, and applications to forecasting / Sharad K. Jain and Vijay P. Singh -- Black-box hydrological models / Chong-Yu Xu, Lihua Xiong and Vijay P. Singh -- Conceptual hydrological models / Zhaofei Liu, Yamei Wang, Zongxue Xu, and Qingyun Duan -- Distributed hydrological models / Yangbo Chen -- Land surface hydrological models / Michael B. Ek -- Part V Model parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis -- Parameter estimation and predictive uncertainty quantification in hydrological modelling / Dmitri Kavetski -- Methods to estimate optimal parameters / Tiantian Yang, Kuolin Hsu, Qingyun Duan, Soroosh Sorooshian, and Chen Wang -- Uncertainty quantification of complex system models: Bayesian analysis / Jasper A. Vrugt and Elias C. Massoud -- Sensitivity analysis methods / Yanjun Gan and Qingyun Duan -- Part VI Observation and data assimilation -- Fundamentals of data assimilation and theoretical advances / Hamid Moradkhani, Grey S. Nearing, Peyman Abbaszadeh, and Sahani Pathiraja -- Soil moisture data assimilation / Gabrielle Jacinthe Maria De Lannoy, Patricia de Rosnay, and Rolf Helmut Reichle -- Assimilation of streamflow observations / Seong Jin Noh, Albrecht H. Weerts, Oldrich Rakovec, Haksu Lee, and Dong-Jun Seo.

VOLUME 2 -- Part VII Post-processing of hydrological ensemble forecasts -- Motivation and overview of hydrological ensemble post-processing / Thomas M. Hopson, Andy Wood, and Albrecht H. Weerts -- Short-range ensemble forecast post-processing / Marie-Amelie Boucher, Emmanuel Roulin, and Vincent Fortin -- Seasonal ensemble forecast post-processing / Andy Wood, A. Sankarasubramanian, and Pablo Mendoza -- Part VIII Verification of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts -- Attributes of forecast quality / A. Allen Bradley, Julie Demargne, and Kristi J. Franz -- Verification metrics for hydrological ensemble forecasts / Francois Anctil and Maria-Helena Ramos -- Verification of meteorological forecasts for hydrological applications / Eric Gilleland, Florian Pappenberger, Barbara Brown, Elizabeth Ebert, and David Richardson -- Verification of short-range hydrological forecasts / Luc Perreault, Jocelyn Gaudet, Louis Delorme, and Simon Chatelain -- Application of hydrological forecast verification information / Kevin Werner, Jan S. Verkade, and Thomas C. Pagano -- Part IX Communication and use of ensemble forecasts for decision making -- Overview of forecast communication and use of ensemble hydrometeorological forecasts / Jutta Thielen-del Pozo and Michael Bruen -- Present and future requirements for using and communicating hydrometeorological ensemble predicition systems for short-, medium-, and long-term applications / Geoff Pegram, Damien Raynaud, Eric Sprokkereef, Martin Ebel, Silke Rademacher, Jonas Olsson, Cristina Alionte-Eklund, Barbro Johansson, Goran Lindstrom, and Henrik Spangmyr -- Best practice in communicating uncertainties in flood management in the USA / Robert K. Hartman -- Saving lives: ensemble-based early warnings in developing nations / Feyera A. Hirpa, Kayode Fagbemi, Ernest Afiesimann, Hassan Shuaib and Peter Salamon -- Communication and using ensemble flood forecasts in flood incident management: lessons from social science / David Demeritt, Elisabeth M. Stephens, Laurence Creton-Cazanave, Celine Lutoff, Isabell Ruin and Sebastien Nobert -- Overview of communication strategies for uncertainty in hydrological forecasting in Australia / Narendra Kumar Tuteja, Senlin Zhou, Julien Lerat, Q.J. Wang, Daehyok Shin, and David E. Robertson -- Part X Ensemble forecast application and showcases -- Introduction to ensemble forecast applications and showcases / Massimiliano Zappa, S.J. van Andel, and Hannah L. Cloke -- Hydrological ensemble prediction systems around the globe / Florian Pappenberger, Thomas C. Pagano, J.D. Brown … -- Flash flood forecasting based n rainfall thresholds / Lorenzo Alfieri, Marc Berenguer, Valentin Knechtl, Katharina Liechti, Daniel Sempere-Torres, and Massimiliano Zappa -- Medium range flood forecasting example EFAS / Jutta Thielen-del Pozo, Peter Salamon, Peter Burek, Florian Pappenberger, C. Alionte Eklund, Erik Sprokkereef, M. Hazlinger, M. Padilla Garcia, and R. Garcia-Sanchez -- Seasonal drought forecasting on the example of the USA / Eric F. Wood, Xing Yuan, Joshua K. Roundy, Ming Pan and Lifeng Luo -- Ensemble streamflow forecasts for hydropower systems / Marie-Amelie Boucher and Maria-Helena Ramos -- Hydropower forecasting in Brazil / Carlos E.M. Tucci, Walter Colluschonn, Fernando Mainardi Fan, and Dirk Schwanenberg -- New York City's operations support tool: utilizing hydrologic forecasts for water supply management / James Porter, Gerald Day, John C. Schaake, and Lucien Wang -- Probabilistic shipping forecast / Dennis Meißner and Bastian Klein -- Probabilistic inundation forecasting / A. Mueller, C. Baugh, P. Bates, and Florian Pappenberger -- Challenges of decision making in the context of uncertain forecasts in France / Caroline Wittwer, C. de Saint-Aubin, and C. Ardilouze -- Hydrological ensemble prediction applied to China / Guangshen Wang, Zhijie Yin, Jianqing Yang, and Yuhong Yan -- Part XI Mathematical and statistical fundamentals for hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting -- Probability and statistical theory for hydrometeorology / Zengchao Hao, Vijay P. Singh, and Wei Gong -- Estimation of probability distributions for hydrometeorological applications / Grey S. Nearing -- Regression techniques used in hydrometeorology / Wei Gong -- Index.

Hydrometeorological prediction involves the forecasting of the state and variation of hydrometeorological elements -- including precipitation, temperature, humidity, soil moisture, river discharge, groundwater, etc.-- at different space and time scales. Such forecasts form an important scientific basis for informing public of natural hazards such as cyclones, heat waves, frosts, droughts and floods. Traditionally, and at most currently operational centers, hydrometeorological forecasts are deterministic, “single-valued” outlooks: i.e., the weather and hydrological models provide a single best guess of the magnitude and timing of the impending events. These forecasts suffer the obvious drawback of lacking uncertainty information that would help decision-makers assess the risks of forecast use. Recently, hydrometeorological ensemble forecast approaches have begun to be developed and used by operational hydrometeorological services. In contrast to deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts are a multiple forecasts of the same events. The ensemble forecasts are generated by perturbing uncertain factors such as model forcings, initial conditions, and/or model physics. Ensemble techniques are attractive because they not only offer an estimate of the most probable future state of the hydrometeorological system, but also quantify the predictive uncertainty of a catastrophic hydrometeorological event occurring. The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX), initiated in 2004, has signaled a new era of collaboration toward the development of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts. By bringing meteorologists, hydrologists and hydrometeorological forecast users together, HEPEX aims to improve operational hydrometeorological forecast approaches to a standard that can be used with confidence by emergencies and water resources managers. HEPEX advocates a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) framework that consists of several basic building blocks. These components include:(a) an approach (typically statistical) for addressing uncertainty in meteorological inputs and generating statistically consistent space/time meteorological inputs for hydrological applications; (b) a land data assimilation approach for leveraging observation to reduce uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions of the hydrological system; (c) approaches that address uncertainty in model parameters (also called ‘calibration’); (d) a hydrologic model or other approach for converting meteorological inputs into hydrological outputs; and finally (e) approaches for characterizing hydrological model output uncertainty. Also integral to HEPS is a verification system that can be used to evaluate the performance of all of its components. HEPS frameworks are being increasingly adopted by operational hydrometeorological agencies around the world to support risk management related to flash flooding, river and coastal flooding, drought, and water management. Real benefits of ensemble forecasts have been demonstrated in water emergence management decision making, optimization of reservoir operation, and other applications. -- publishers website.

GRETA POINT: 551.579 HAN Vol. 1-2

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